6月份(fen)(fen)，天然橡膠(jiao)價(jia)格走出(chu)沖高(gao)回(hui)落(luo)行情(qing)(qing)，滬膠(jiao)主力2409合約(yue)于6月11日探出(chu)年(nian)內新(xin)高(gao)16110元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)價(jia)格后出(chu)現回(hui)調(diao)。截止(zhi)6月21日，滬膠(jiao)主力2409合約(yue)月內價(jia)格高(gao)點(dian)為16110元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，價(jia)格低點(dian)在(zai)14690元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，收盤于14995元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。今年(nian)以(yi)來，天然橡膠(jiao)價(jia)格整體波動(dong)幅度并(bing)不算(suan)劇烈，不過(guo)(guo)價(jia)格重心在(zai)5月價(jia)格拉漲過(guo)(guo)后呈穩步上(shang)移態勢。在(zai)6月份(fen)(fen)走出(chu)快速沖高(gao)回(hui)落(luo)行情(qing)(qing)后，膠(jiao)價(jia)的震蕩特點(dian)依然明(ming)顯，預計滬膠(jiao)2409合約(yue)價(jia)格仍會在(zai)14000-17000元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)區(qu)間(jian)維系偏(pian)強震蕩格局。
今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)出現了(le)顯著下滑。根據海關總署公布的數據，2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1-5 月中國(guo)(guo)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)及(ji)合成(cheng)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)（含(han)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)乳）共計 281.4 萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，較 2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)的 337.3 萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)下降(jiang) 16.6%，降(jiang)幅超過55萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)之多。天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)下降(jiang)的直接(jie)結果則是天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)社(she)會庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)的持(chi)(chi)續回落。截(jie)至(zhi)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)6月16日，中國(guo)(guo)天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)社(she)會庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)降(jiang)至(zhi)126.1萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，較年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初的156萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)下降(jiang)有近40萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)之多。由此可見，天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)增減對國(guo)(guo)內(nei)天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)市場的供給影(ying)響有著決定性(xing)的影(ying)響。截(jie)止6月21日，上(shang)海期(qi)貨交易所天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)注冊倉單(dan)量(liang)(liang)在21.74萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，高(gao)于去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)約(yue)4.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，但低于2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)水平。當前天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)及(ji)倉單(dan)水平仍不低，這將阻(zu)礙天(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)橡(xiang)(xiang)膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價格持(chi)(chi)續大漲(zhang)，但持(chi)(chi)續回落的庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)走勢也將支撐膠(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)價重心上(shang)移。
